Ethereum ETF To Attract Only 15% Of US Spot Bitcoin ETF Influx: 10X Research

The Ethereum price saw a modest 1% uptick today, riding on the optimism surrounding the imminent approval of the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF. Notably, anticipation is soaring as market insiders expect the Ether ETF could begin trading as early as next week, with July 2 highlighted as a key date.

However, recent insights from 10X Research suggest that the Ethereum ETF might only attract a minimal fraction of the investment seen in U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Ethereum ETF To Record Minimal Inflow As Compared To BTC ETF

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, has provided an in-depth analysis of the potential market impact of the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF. In a social media post, Thielen highlighted the approaching approval and anticipated market behavior.

According to Thielen, the Ethereum ETF could launch any day now, possibly by July 2, following a pattern observed with Bitcoin ETFs. Thielen pointed out that VanEck, one of the key players in this space, recently filed a form 8-A, a step taken just days before their Bitcoin ETF launch. VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF quickly accumulated $600 million in assets under management (AUM).

However, for the Ethereum ETF, Thielen estimates it will attract only 15-20% of the influx seen by Bitcoin ETFs, which amounts to approximately $2.8 billion. In addition, Markus Thielen also noted that VanEck filed its form 8-A for Bitcoin ETF exactly seven days before the ETFs were launched in the U.S. Considering that, he has raised bets on the potential trading launch timeline to be July 2.

For the Ethereum ETF inflow expectations, Thielen said that “General expectations” are that the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF will grab only 15-20% of the investment that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen, translating to roughly $2.8 billion. Notably, this amount was roughly similar to the growth in Ethereum perpetual futures open interest since May 20.

Considering that, Thielen said that the market might be already positioning itself for the launch of U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF.

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SEC’s Role and Market Readiness

Gary Gensler, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has indicated that the approval process for the Spot Ethereum ETF is progressing smoothly. Although Gensler’s remarks were non-committal, they have fueled optimism that the SEC might greenlight these ETFs soon.

Notably, the timeline has been a topic of speculation, especially after the SEC approved 19b-4 filings from several financial giants including VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale.

Despite these approvals, actual trading has yet to commence. Issuers are still required to amend their S-1 registration statements and secure final approval from the SEC. Notably, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has adjusted the potential approval date for the Spot Ethereum ETF to July 2, reflecting ongoing regulatory processes.

As of writing, Ethereum price rose 1.11% and exchanged hands at $3,387.68. However, its trading volume slipped 44% to $12.06 billion from yesterday, while its price touched a high of $3,424.58. Furthermore, Ethereum Futures Open Interest rose 0.90% to $15.08 billion, while ETH Options Open Interest surged 1.63% to $6.3 billion.

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